Fuel Markets at a Glance: 2025 Recap and 2026 Outlook

By Jeremy Peebles, GCC Vice President of Petroleum

Compared to the ups and downs of recent years the 2025 oil and fuel markets stayed relatively calm. Strong global production, steady inventories, and slower economic growth kept prices lower than many expected, offering some welcome relief for fuel buyers. As we look back on what shaped the market in 2025 and ahead to what 2026 may bring, understanding these trends can help you plan fuel purchases with confidence while staying prepared for potential changes down the road.

What happened in 2025?
 

• Plenty of oil around the world: Big producers like OPEC+ pumped more, U.S. and Brazil kept output strong. That meant lots of supply and lower prices.
• Demand stayed soft: Global economy grew slowly, so fuel use didn’t spike. Diesel and jet fuel were the main bright spots.
• Prices stayed low: WTI Crude oil averaged $65 per barrel, the lowest in years. Good news for fuel buyers.
• Inventories piled up: Storage tanks were full—another reason prices didn’t rise much.
• Short-term bumps: A few refinery outages and sanctions caused brief price jumps, but nothing lasting.

 
What’s coming in 2026?
 
The oil market appears to be heading down one of two likely paths.

Scenario 1: More Supply than Demand (most likely early 2026)
 

• Oil surplus could keep prices in the $50s per barrel.
• Consumers may see stable or slightly lower diesel and gasoline costs.
• Good time to lock in fuel contracts if you want certainty.

 
Scenario 2: Tight Supply Later On
 

• If producers cut back too much or global tensions rise, prices could shoot higher late in 2026.
• Diesel and jet fuel could get expensive again.
• Keep an eye on weather, geopolitics, and refinery issues, these can flip the market fast.

 
Bottom Line
 

• Fuel costs should stay manageable for most of 2026, but don’t assume it lasts forever.
• Consider contracting or pre-buying fuel for harvest season while prices are low.
• Watch for signs of tightening later in the year, especially if global conflicts or big storms hit.

 
Looking ahead, the fuel market enters 2026 in a relatively comfortable position, with ample supply and prices that remain favorable for most buyers. While current conditions suggest stability, history reminds us the market can shift quickly. Taking advantage of today’s lower prices through contracting or pre-buy options—especially ahead of harvest—can provide peace of mind. Staying alert to changes in production, weather, and global events will be key to navigating the year ahead and avoiding surprises when conditions tighten.

Planning ahead can make all the difference, and our team is here to help—let’s connect today.