Weekly Market Update 5-25-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Which two countries have not missed one of the modern-day Olympics?
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Market Update: Corn: Corn looks to be building a floor around the $5.00 range. The heart of the corn belt is nearly complete with planting and forecasts shifting to a drier outlook has bulls gather momentum in the near term at least. This has been a factor in support for the current rally. Wheat: Funds have been steering the ship with wheat and awaiting harvest. Soybeans: Beans may have some momentum coming with forecasts looking drier and heading into a 3 day weekend, Tuesday might have a little excitement to it.
Export Inspections: Corn: We saw a decent amount of corn shipped with 52.1 million bushels reported. Japan, China, and Mexico were the top destinations. Corn remains 3% behind USDA estimates but has made up ground, slightly. Soybeans: Beans inspections were pitiful from this week’s report at 5.7 million bushels shipped. Japan and Mexico were the top destinations. Overall soybeans are still ahead of pace for the USDA’s mark and should remain there for the foreseeable future. Milo: Milo saw its best week of shipments since the end of March with 4.6 million bushels shipped. China was the only destination for milo the past 2 weeks. Wheat: Wheat outperformed trade expectations this week with 15 million bushels shipped. White was the top variety followed by HRS. Mexico, China, and the Philippines were the top destinations this week. With 1 week left in the trading year for wheat, it is just ahead of shipment pace according to the USDA.
Export Sales: Corn: Corn was not a pretty number this week for export sales with a net negative 3 million in sales for old crop and only 2.1 million bushels sold of new crop. With the last few weeks seeing net cancellations with corn, we are falling more and more behind export sales progress for the year. Currently sitting at 8% behind projections. It is looking more and more likely we do not meet expectations from sales with Brazil about to harvest their Safrina crop and flush the market with cheap corn. Soybeans: Soybeans were far behind corn for a bad week of sales but at least were in the black with 4.2 million bushels sold. Soybeans remain behind pace but not to the extent for corn. Milo: Milo did not get skunked for the week with 200k bushels sold. Milo is also behind on sales progress. Wheat: Wheat joined corn in posting a net negative for sales on the week overall 1.7 million bushels. Something to keep an eye on was President Biden commenting that “I think we are going to see that thaw very shortly” in response to the U.S. China icy relationship.
Crop Progress Update: Corn Planting progress is doing well overall. Spring planting season ahead of schedule at least here nationally, however falling behind pace from averaged yrs. TX & KS, ND but doing well for the last full week of May reporting 81% total planted 6% better than the average, jumping from 65% last week. Planting will be on the forefront of market minds with final planting dates for crop insurance approaching quickly. Soybeans reported 66% planted, jumping from 49% last week and staying ahead of pace. Winter wheat conditions slow moving 31% good to excellent 29% LW 45% on the 5 yr. average. Heavy rains impacting the TX/OK and into KS with concerns with the maturity of the crop, crop quality issues arise same with TN and into KY with SRW.
Rains throughout Kansas as of 5-22-23
Weather this week could be an indication that there is likelihood of an El Nino setting in for this second half of the 2023 year with moisture in the forecasts lately with promising percentages. A breath of fresh air with temperature highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s. Severe thunderstorms are likely in the area for the holiday weekend with 50% for showers on Friday 30% days after. All this moisture that we’ve seen and yet to be predicted here we are on the drought side of things.
Greece & Australia
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