Weekly Market Update 1/8/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What was the first state?

2. The classic 1877 novel “Black Beauty” is about what kind of animal?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: March corn futures were down ¾-cent to a settlement price of $4.46 at the close today. Futures pulled back from gains seen in the overnight trading session on Wednesday as traders begin to anticipate bullish numbers in Monday’s USDA supply and demand report. Based on a Reuters survey, analysts expect to see a decrease in total US corn production, average corn yield, and corn ending stocks for the 25/26 marketing year. A larger cut to US corn yields, as a result of disease and unfavorable weather conditions, could potentially allow the markets to see some upside potential – like the winter rally seen a year ago under the same conditions. March soybean futures were down 5 ¾-cents today to $10.6150. Soybean futures have seen gains throughout the week as Chinese purchases have continued to push the country closer to their 12 MMT agreement, reached in October. Total Chinese purchases to date are estimated to be around 8.5 to 10 MMT. Soybean traders are optimistic that Monday’s USDA report could see a decrease to the average US soybean yield, having the potential to add some value back to the current market. Based on a Reuters survey, total US soybean production is expected to decrease from 4.253 billion bushels to 4.229 billion bushels, while US ending stocks could increase from 290 million bushels in December, to 292 million bushels. March wheat futures were down 1 ¼-cents to $5.30 at the close. Futures saw some gains in the overnight trading session as weather concerns and crop conditions triggered buying. Winter wheat conditions fell from 62% good/excellent at the end of November, to 60% good/excellent earlier this week. Monday’s USDA report will include initial US winter wheat planting estimates. Wheat acreage is expected to decrease from 33.153 million acres in 2024, to 32.413 million acres. Wheat ending stocks in the US are predicted to decrease from 901 million bushels in December, to 896 million bushels.

ENERGY: According to Reuters, Vitol has received a preliminary special license from the U.S. government to oversee negotiations for the import and export of oil from Venezuela for 18 months. However, meetings are set for tomorrow as the White House hosts U.S. oil majors. Furthermore, details need to be established regarding the logistics of this process, particularly in securing the full cooperation of the current Venezuelan government. President Trump previously expressed a desire to exert control over Venezuela's oil sales and revenues; however, the Venezuelan government will likely require something in return for its cooperation. Venezuela's oil infrastructure is in significant disrepair due to the nationalization of the industry in 1976, which has limited oil production to no more than one-third of its potential. Oil companies will be hesitant to invest in rebuilding this infrastructure until they feel assured of the country's political stability. It will be interesting to see what the days ahead hold.

EXPORTS: Corn sales for the week ending 1/1/26 were 14.9 million bushels, sharply below market estimates and a marketing year low for the first 18 weeks of 2025/2026. Corn sales over the last four weeks have averaged 49.8 million bushels/week. The largest corn buyers this week were South Korea, Japan and Mexico. Soybean sales fell within market expectations at 32.3 million bushels, but well below the four-week average of 47.7 million bushels. Soybean exports continue to be disappointing, with current sales 15% behind the pace needed to hit current USDA estimates. Wheat sales were reported at 4.4 million bushels, below market estimates. This makes for three weeks in a row of slow wheat sales, however, wheat is still significantly ahead of the pace needed to hit current USDA export estimates. Milo sales were reported at 9.1 million bushels, continuing the trend of steady week-on-week growth. However, milo sales are still 14% behind the pace needed to hit USDA export estimates.



WEATHER: Cool and dreary today with highs near 47°F and increasing wind with gusts near 36 mph. Overnight lows dip to 28F, bringing a 20% chance of snow showers after 2am. Snow chances increase during the day Friday, around 70%. Accumulation is estimated at less than an inch. Slight snow chances (20%) continue into Friday night before midnight. Sunshine returns on Saturday with a high of 45°F. Weekend lows hover around 20°F while highs Sunday and into next week warm back up into the upper 50s.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Delaware

2. A Horse