Weekly Market Update 9/18/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which country produces the most coffee in the world?

2. What was the name of the rock band formed by Jimmy Page?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

CRUSH REPORT: - NOPA reported a soybean crush of 189.8 million bushels, exceeding trade estimates and setting an August record, with a total of 2.304 billion bushels for the Sept-Aug period, up 6% YoY.
- Soybean oil (SBO) stocks were at 1,245 million pounds, lower than expectations and down from 1,379 million in July, but higher than 1,138 million a year ago.
- Domestic oil usage in August reached a record of over 2.4 billion pounds.
- Soybean meal (SBM) production was 4.513 million short tons, down from the previous month but significantly higher than last August, with a meal yield of 47.55 pounds, slightly lower MoM but higher YoY.
Summary: soybean oil jumps higher post-NOPA release on bullish stocks figures, while soybeans cut into pre-report losses with crush way above expectations. Meal gains a bit but is still dragging on the complex.
 
EXPORTS:  Corn export inspections totaled 59.5 million bushels, exceeding estimates of 39-59 million bushels, with main destinations being Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan. Wheat inspections improved to 27.7 million bushels, above estimates, with HRW led to Mexico and Nigeria, and WW and HRS going to Indonesia. The soybean complex saw 29.6 million bushels inspected, surpassing trade estimates, along with 1.4 million bushels of Milo inspected and shipped. During this current week, corn sales reached 48.5 million bushels, with no new crop contracts. This figure aligns with trade estimates. The soy complex saw sales of 33.9 million bushels, while new crop Milo sold 4.0 million bushels, which is better than the 10-week average; however, there were no bushels locked in for the new crop. Wheat sales fell at the bottom of trade estimates, totaling 13.9 million bushels, with 0.4 million bushels allocated for new crop contracts.



MARKET UPDATE: December corn futures fell ¾-cent in the overnight trading session on Wednesday. Today’s trading session closed down 3-cents, settling at $4.2375. Concerns over the possibility of biofuel policy changes and its implications on ethanol demand contributed to price concerns seen Wednesday. The potential for late summer weather to hurt yields across the Midwest continues to keep the markets looking seemingly bearish. USDA lowered yield estimates last Friday by 2.1 bushels per acre – traders anticipate a further decay in future reports as more harvest data is reported. Soybean markets remain under pressure with the lack of Chinese purchasing despite some forward progress in trade negotiations. The USDA cut 25/26 soybean export estimates by 1.2% last week and it’s expected that this number might be reduced further if China continues to stay out of the market. November soybean futures fell 4-cents overnight Wednesday, reaching a new low for the week and at the close today, are down 6-cents to $10.3750. December wheat futures were up 1-cent during the overnight session after falling 7-cents on Wednesday. At the close today, December futures are down 6-cents to $5.1025. Wheat futures continue to remain near 5-year lows as domestic and global supplies remain high. Weekly exports are looking for a rebound after a disappointing week of exports last week. Check out our section on export sales for more details.

INTEREST RATE MARKET UPDATE: As expected, the FED cut the federal funds rate yesterday by a quarter point to 4% - 4.25%. FED chairman Jerome Powell considers it a “risk management cut,” citing weakness in the labor market, while inflation stays above target. One or two more rate cuts are still expected this year. Looking at the rest of the economy, unemployment is expected to improve after reaching a peak of 4.5% while inflation is expected to continue moving higher. GDP is higher, but still below 2%. All in all, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where things are going in the future.
 
WEATHER: Skies today are mostly sunny with a high near 75°F after most of the area received substantial rains last night. Tonight looks to be clear with lows near 53°F. Tomorrow through Monday brings clear skies with highs in the low to mid 80s. Monday night has a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am then cooling off Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs near 77°F.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Brazil

2. Led Zeppelin