Weekly Market Update 5/14/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. At one time it was said that it was illegal to serve a popular dessert in Kansas on Sundays. What dessert was it?

2. A group of flamingos is known as what?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

KS WHEAT TOUR: The 68^th annual Kansas wheat tour kicked off Tuesday to evaluate the state’s winter wheat crop. Northwest Kansas estimates were about 38.3 bushels per acre (bpa), down nearly 20 bpa from last year. As the tour moved into Southwest Kansas, average estimates were at 39.3 bushels per acre. Several fields near the Oklahoma border measured barely 15 bpa. Based on current conditions are forecasts, these estimates are likely to continue to worsen throughout the state. The tour will conclude today after scouting central and eastern Kansas, which will most likely have better yields than the western portion of the state. However, overall production estimates look to be significantly lower than last year.

 WASDE RECAP: This week’s USDA WASDE report gave the first official outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year and set an overall bearish tone for the foreseeable future. Generally quiet across the board for corn this month, with minor noted changes. Old crop corn carryout for the 2025/26 marketing year was increased by 15 million bushels, pushing global carryout to 296.95 MMT, up from 294.80 MMT in April. Projections for 2026/27 new crop carryout aligned with USDA estimates at 1.957 billion bushels domestically.

Old crop soybean crush values increased by 20 million bushels for 2025/26 and exports decreased by 10 million bushels, leaving ending stocks at a net decrease of 10 million bushels domestically. The N/C balance sheet increased crush values and export demand domestically, pushing initial estimated carryout to 310 million bushels. Global carryout for 2025/26 was increased to 125.13 MMT, from 124.79 MMT in April.

What everyone is here for, and last, but certainly not least, wheat. Domestic wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year fell short of expectations, at 1.561 billion bushels. Sitting 154 million bushels below average trade estimates, this would be the smallest winter wheat crop seen in the U.S. in half a century. That decreased projected N/C crop carryout to 762 million bushels, down 173 million bushels from the 935 million bushel carryout for 2025/26. Global values remained in line with expectations.



 CROP PROGRESS: Corn planting reached 57% nationwide as of Sunday, two points behind last year and five points ahead of the five-year average. Tennessee and Kentucky lead with 92% and 87% planted, while Iowa and Illinois are at 72% and 54%, respectively. Corn development is 23% emerged, three points behind last year but ahead of the five-year average. Soybean planting is at 49%, four points ahead of last year and 13 points ahead of the five-year average. Major progress is noted in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. 20% of soybeans have emerged, outpacing last year's 16%. Nearly 28% of winter wheat is rated poor to very poor, with Kansas at 17% good/excellent. Planting weather in the Plains and Midwest is set to improve this week, with warmer temperatures and drier conditions, though a weekend system may slow progress. Despite recent precipitation, a significant drought persists due to limited subsoil moisture. Frost has been an issue in the north, but rising temperatures should facilitate planting. Most areas will experience drier weather overall. A system arriving this weekend could bring more widespread precipitation, potentially pause planting progress while providing much-needed rain in certain areas. The Southeast will likely remain dry, exacerbating drought conditions, and cooler temperatures are expected across the Canadian Prairies, with no significant frost risk.

EXPORTS: Corn inspections report was decent, back in the status quo for the past month, with 66.6 million bu shipped this past week. This keeps the above pace trend but seems a little disappointing following last week. Wheat was above estimates, 18.8 million bu, better than the 10-week average. Beans shipped 24.1 million bu. This week’s export sales corn report was very sickly, with just 27 million bu sold, well below estimates and well below what we have been seeing. As for the buyers this week, it’s the same crew that’s been here all year. Wheat sales showed 25/26 at 133k MT and 26/27 at 221k MT, with Indonesia booking 50k MT of HRW for the current year. We saw rumblings in the cash markets of more EU wheat purchased for import into the U.S., which pencils out against domestic values. No sales for Milo again this week.

WEATHER: Summer-like weather looks to be around for the rest of the week with highs today near 95°F. Tomorrow highs are in the low 90s with increasing clouds. Saturday’s high of 90°F will bring a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Sunday will be hot and windy with a high of 98°F and a 20% chance of showers in the afternoon. Next week cools off some with a high of 88°F on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be sunny with highs in the upper 70s.

Trivia Answers

1. Cherry pie with ice cream

2. A flamboyance