Weekly Market Update 5/21/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Who was the first author to use a “typemachine” or typewriter in writing a manuscript?

2. What year was Kodak founded?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

INTEREST RATE MARKET UPDATE: Prior hopes of cutting rates are nearly out the window as inflation is on the rise once again. The Headline CPI at 3.8% is the highest we’ve seen since May of 2023, yet still in line with expectations. Core CPI was higher than expected at 2.8% but seems to signal that tariff impacts are starting to dwindle. Looking deeper into the April report, food at home and energy rose 0.7% and 3.8% respectively. 5 of 6 categories at the grocery store were on the rise, including average steak prices being at an all-time high. Energy index increases are of no surprise but contributed to nearly half of inflation over the last month. Overall goods stayed flat, including used cars, new cars, and medical care equipment. Apparel was the only increase in this category of 0.6%. Services were up 0.5% due in part mostly to shelter and airlines. Supercore inflation is at its highest in over a year at 3.38%. April’s report is pretty disheartening and unfortunately is leading to pretty high odds of rate hikes within the next year…an 84% chance we will see hikes a year from now.

 CROP PROGRESS: U.S. winter wheat ratings continue to decline, with only 27% rated as good or excellent, the lowest for this time of year since 1996. Conversely, 43% are rated poor or very poor, the highest since 2014. Issues are primarily in the Plains, where moisture is returning, but it may be too late for southern regions. No harvest progress was reported this week, but combines are operating in Texas and Oklahoma, though they may need to pause due to forecasted rains. Meanwhile, significant planting progress was made across the U.S., with corn and soybeans advancing by 19% and 18% week over week, respectively. Corn planting is 76% complete, and soybean planting is 67%. Heavy rains have improved soil moisture but may slow the end of the planting season.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 83.7 million bushels this week – 33.4 million bushels above the running 10-week average and exceeding current trade estimates. New crop corn sales were reported at 11.1 million bushels sold. Current week corn export inspections totaled 54.3 million bushels, down 12.8 million bushels from the week prior. Old crop soybean sales were reported at 12.9 million bushels, with 6.3 million bushels of N/C soybean sales reported. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 17.8 million bushels – falling below the running 10-week average and in-line with current trade estimates. All O/C wheat export sales totaled 6.1 million bushels this week, in addition to 4.8 million bushels of N/C sales. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 8.2 million bushels – falling 2.8 million bushels below current trade estimates. A total of 0.6 million bushels of milo export sales were reported this week and export inspections totaled 5.6 million bushels.

TRUMP’S MEETING WITH XI: The weekend provided more clarity on the agreements reached with China last week, which will impact agricultural trade between the two countries. According to a fact sheet released, China has agreed to purchase $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural commodities annually through 2028, in addition to the soybean purchases outlined in the October handshake trade agreement. That agreement reportedly called for China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the past year, with plans to buy 25 million metric tons each year for the next three years. Although China has never officially confirmed these details, it did follow through with the purchase of the 12 million metric tons. The table below from Monday’s StoneX China Direct wire indicates that this agreement would bring non-soybean purchases closer to levels seen in the calendar years 2021 through 2023, which were considered anomaly years. It's important to note the U.S. Census Bureau's trade data reflects product values at U.S. ports, while China computes values upon arrival, aiding their purchasing goals. Despite this difference, U.S. grain and oilseed prices surged overnight into Monday and have continued the volatile demeanor.


WEATHER: Cooler weather today with a high of 64°F and a 30% chance of showers this afternoon and a 50% chance of thunderstorms this evening. Tomorrow is warmer with a high of 71°F with a 60% chance of thunderstorms before 11am. Clouds will move in Friday night, leading to increasing chances of rain on Saturday and Saturday night. Sunshine returns Sunday and continues through Memorial Day with highs in the mid-80s. Slight rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Trivia Answers

1. Mark Twain

2. 1892