GCC Weekly Market Commentary > 2026 > May 2026 > Weekly Market Update 5-28-2026

Weekly Market Update 5/28/2026

May 28, 2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

Michael Jackson teamed up with what notable guitar player for the 1982 song “Beat It?”
What year did the comedy sketch TV show, “Saturday Night Live,” debut?

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Market News

MARKET UPDATE: July corn futures were up 3 ¾-cents today to close at a settlement price of $4.5625. December corn futures settled up 5-cents today, closing at $4.8250. Surging crude oil prices sparked corrective buying in the overnight trading session, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Reports that Iran targeted a U.S. airbase following U.S. strikes at Bandar Abbas contributed to fading optimism around a potential peace deal. Continued strength in export demand and ethanol usage has helped support prices. Despite these bullish factors, underlying bearish supply fundamentals and strong crop progress to date suggest there may still be downside risk yet to come.

July soybean futures were up 10 ½-cents today, closing at a settlement price of $11.9575. November soybean futures were down 13 ¾-cents to a settlement price of $11.9525. Strength in crude oil continues to lend support to both soybean grain and soybean oil futures. However, ample global supplies and rapid planting progress are limiting the market’s upside potential. Export demand remains a concern, with shipments running at the slowest pace seen in over a decade. Additionally, there are few long-term signals suggesting a sustainable Chinese demand. The soybean market remains caught between short-term support and long-term bearish fundamentals.

July wheat futures were down 3 ¾-cents today, closing at a settlement price of $6.66. Wheat futures saw mixed action, with some corrective buying emerging alongside strength in the crude oil market. Recent rainfall across the southern Plains may help ease drought conditions but is unlikely to improve yield potential at this stage. The market’s pullback over the last few weeks appears to reflect historically low crop ratings and confirmed production losses. As a result, traders continue to balance short-term support from outside markets with ongoing fundamental concerns.

HEAVY RAINS IN CHINA: The slowed harvest in 2023 led to more than 20 million metric tons of sprouted wheat, which could only be used for livestock feed. This significantly reduced the demand for corn as lower-quality wheat was priced into the feed market. A similar trend is beginning to emerge this year, but experts do not expect it to be as severe as what was experienced in 2023. Currently, much of the North China Plain is too wet, which has caused mature wheat fields to show discoloration and develop quality issues. As it stands, the current assessment is that this year’s damage may result in the sprouting of 8 to 10 million metric tons of wheat, accounting for 6 to 7% of the total production. This situation will need to be closely monitored in the coming days. The good news is that forecasters from Commodity Weather Group are predicting a drier trend over the next week or two, which should help reduce the threat.

CROP PROGRESS: Good to excellent wheat ratings in the state remained at 15% from the previous week, though it seems like crop conditions are continuing to deteriorate. However, nationally it is estimated that winter wheat conditions are improving slightly. If these numbers are correct, they would mark the lowest since 2006 for this time of year. Corn planting rolls on as 77% of the crop is in the ground with 57% of that emerged, both numbers slightly behind the 5-year average. Soybean planting is ahead of schedule significantly with 66% of beans planted and 40% emerged. Milo is at the average planting pace with 17% planted, yet behind 3% from last year.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn export inspections were strong, with 62.3 million bu shipped this past week, in line with the 5-year average and maintaining an above-trend pace to meet current estimates. It was the normal round of destinations this week, with Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia, and Taiwan taking the largest share of shipments. The Wheat complex showed a nice uptick to near the recent pace last week, with 13.5 MB reported, led by shipments to Japan, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and the Philippines. HRW loaded from the interior to Mexico, the Gulf to the Dominican Republic, and the PNW to Japan. Beans reported shipping 21.0 million bushels, the same amount as before. In contrast, milo shipments were significantly lower, at only 0.1 million bushels this week, down from 5.6 million bushels the previous week. China remains the primary destination for these shipments. The Export Sales report will be released tomorrow.

WEATHER: Measurable rains fell for most of the area yesterday; nearly 2.5” at Rock Island, 1” – 1.5” in the Garden area, and .3” at Hooker as of earlier this morning. Rain chances continue throughout the day with high temperatures near 73°F. Friday is warmer with a high of 84°F with a 10% chance of thunderstorms after 5pm. Rain chances take a pause as we move into the weekend – highs near 90°F and sunny. Warm weather continues into Monday as showers and thunderstorm chances return that evening. Tuesday and Wednesday are slightly cooler with highs in the low 80s and 30-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms.