Weekly Market Update 5/7/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What crop, the most common to be rotated with corn, was the focus of China trade war discussions because of the fact that 60% of the U.S. crop was exported to China in 2016?

2. What is the world’s most widely eaten staple food?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

WAR DEAL UNDER REVIEW: Despite optimistic statements regarding a deal, officials from both sides have shared mixed messages about the timeline and conclusion of the negotiations. Iran is currently reviewing a one-page memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which would initiate a 30-day period of hopeful discussions. While some uncertainties remain on Iran's side, positive momentum in the tech sector is boosting overall market sentiment. However, tensions persist. The U.S. Central Command confirmed a strike on an Iranian-flagged oil tanker attempting to bypass a blockade. Israel has conducted strikes in Beirut and Gaza City, targeting Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, respectively. With the connections between Iran's IRGC, Hezbollah, and Hamas, it will be interesting to see how these developments affect the prospects for a constructive agreement. Let's remain hopeful for a peaceful resolution!
 
MARKET UPDATE: The energy market significantly influenced corn futures, leading to a sharp decline followed by recovery, driven by fluctuations in crude oil prices. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran/US conflict affected market values, with reports suggesting both sides are nearing a temporary agreement, though disagreements remain. The latest WASDE estimates indicate a corn carryout of 1.922 billion bushels for the 26/27 crop year, based on strong feed demand, increased ethanol demand, and a robust export program. The USDA has the flexibility to adjust demand estimates, but the projected carryout assumes exceptional demand to reduce excess supply. Increased demand is expected to be concentrated in the 26/27 marketing year. The bean market showed Initial losses in the bean oil and soybean futures, which were partially reclaimed during the session, but the markets did end up closing lower. KC wheat led to a washout of fair-weather speculative funds today. The extended forecasts showed rain for Kansas, but generally of the too-late type. Nuance does not hold the attention of the part-time players. The average trade guesses released by the press today show the analysts are still somewhat optimistic about the US winter wheat crop, with an 820 mbu carryout. The USDA can adjust acres and yields as it wishes at this point in the season. They are not held to yields from the Feb Outlook, as the corn/soy tables are, and therefore can show some surprises for the US S/D in May.

CROP PROGRESS: Spring planting rolls on with 41% of the corn crop planted, 25% soybeans, and 5% of the milo crop in the ground so far in Kansas, with each behind last year’s numbers at this time. 20% of corn planted has emerged, up 9% from last week. Soybean emergence is slowly beginning with about 3% of the crop up. Winter wheat conditions continue to deteriorate as more of the crop has moved to poor to very poor ratings (44%) with just 22% still rated good to excellent. Nearly 70% of the wheat crop is headed, increasing from 41% the prior week.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 53.6 million bushels this week – 1.3 million bushels above the running 10-week average and in-line with current trade estimates. New crop corn sales were reported at 4.8 million bushels sold. Current week corn export inspections totaled 79.8 million bushels, up 14.6 million bushels from the week prior. Old crop soybean sales were reported at 5.2 million bushels, with 0.2 million bushels of N/C soybean sales reported. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 16.5 million bushels – falling below the running 10-week average and on the lower-end of current trade estimates. All O/C wheat export sales totaled 2.9 million bushels this week, in addition to 6.9 million bushels of N/C sales. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 16.0 million bushels – in-line with current trade estimates. No milo export sales were reported this week and export inspections totaled 5.6 million bushels.



WEATHER: After rains fell around the area yesterday, warm dry weather returns for the next week. Today’s skies are sunny with a high of 74°F and west winds 11 to 15 mph. Friday weather is more of the same with a high of 75°F and a light breeze becoming north in the afternoon. Saturday brings a high of 86°F with sunshine before cooling back down to 74°F on Sunday. Early next week looks to have temps in the low 90s and sunshine.

Trivia Answers

1. Soybeans

2. Rice